Forecasted Rates

Why Forecasted Rates Deliver Superior Forward-Looking Calculations

Planning utility costs for the next 12 months can be challenging. While you might consider using the last published rate and applying it for the entire year, we offer a more sophisticated approach that saves time and delivers significantly more accurate predictions.

The Limitations of Using Last Published Rates

Relying on the last published rate (trailing 12 months or TTM) means depending on historical data that may not reflect future conditions. This approach can lead to inaccurate cost predictions because it fails to account for:

• Seasonal Variations: Utility rates frequently fluctuate with seasonal patterns. For example, fuel costs typically spike during winter months but decline in summer.
• Rate Changes: Utilities regularly update their rates—sometimes monthly or even daily. Depending on outdated data means missing these critical adjustments.
• Significant Structural Changes: Occasionally, major updates occur in tariff structures or pricing models. For instance, SDGE implemented a comprehensive overhaul last year that would not be captured by examining only the previous year's rates.

The Advantages of Our Forecasted Rates

We recommend using our forecasted rates for your calculations for several compelling reasons:

1. Incorporates Seasonal Trends: Our forecasted rates account for seasonal variations, ensuring your cost predictions align with actual price fluctuations throughout the year. This approach eliminates surprises from peak-season pricing.

2. Captures Frequent Adjustments: Many utility tariffs include variable rate components that change regularly. Our forecasts incorporate these updates, providing a more current and accurate assessment.

3. Delivers Superior Future Cost Predictions: By analyzing historical data patterns and trends, we can project future rates with greater accuracy. This enhanced precision helps you plan more effectively and avoid unexpected costs.

Real-World Performance Comparison

Here's how forecasted rates perform compared to traditional methods using a typical solar customer in Boston:

The TTM approach may show artificially lower costs because it relies on outdated rates that don't reflect future pricing. FTM without forecasts provides a better foundation but can prove inaccurate during rate spikes. Our forecasted rates deliver a balanced and precise view by accounting for both seasonal patterns and frequent rate adjustments.

Why Accuracy Drives Success

Precise first-year cost predictions are essential for building customer trust and satisfaction. Accurate predictions result in:

• Fewer customer support inquiries
• Higher customer satisfaction rates
• Increased referrals from satisfied customers
• Enhanced credibility for your business

Conclusion

Using our forecasted rates enables you to create more accurate, reliable, and customer-focused calculations for future utility costs. This approach provides you with the most advanced tools available for forward planning while ensuring your customers receive the most dependable cost projections possible.